Assessing ASML’s Long-Term Assumptions for 2025 and 2030

ASML’s investor presentation included a wide set of claims on market growth, wafer capacity, lithography intensity, and the impact of geopolitical regionalization. This critique reviews those claims by subsegment and process class, and highlights areas where underlying assumptions appear optimistic. End-Market and Wafer Growth Claims ASML projects semiconductor end-market revenue growing ~9% annually from 2020 to 2030, implying >$700B in...

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